Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Tatjana Maria
To win
+$42.80
Total payout
$62.80
Joint prob
36.8%
Combined odds
3.14
Fair odds
2.72
Edge
+15.5%
Expected value: +$3.09 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$3.09 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 36.8% · fair market: 31.0% · edge: +18.7%
Model probabilities Nikola Bartunkova 63.2% · Tatjana Maria 36.8% Why Nikola Bartunkova is favoured Nikola Bartunkova's Elo (1576) is +177 over Tatjana Maria (1399); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 82.3% home · Platt-calibrated down to 63.2% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 36.8% vs market 31.0% (edge +18.7%, suggested Kelly +7.2% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.