Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Alina Korneeva
To win
+$34.60
Total payout
$54.60
Joint prob
62.1%
Combined odds
2.73
Fair odds
1.61
Edge
+69.6%
Expected value: +$13.93 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$13.93 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 62.1% · fair market: 35.8% · edge: +73.7%
Iva Jović has advanced to the third round of the WTA Canadian Open after a straight-sets victory over Magda Linette, showcasing resilience by recovering from a deficit in the second set. Currently ranked No. 16, Jović is making her second appearance in the round-of-16 at a WTA 1000 event this year.
Lineup: Expected to be in the starting lineup for the third-round match at the Canadian Open.
Alina Korneeva, a qualifier, is enjoying a breakthrough run at the Canadian Open, having upset the No. 23 seed Emma Navarro in straight sets to reach her first WTA 1000 third round. She has significantly climbed the rankings this year, moving from No. 210 to No. 89, and boasts a strong 35-13 record.
Lineup: Expected to be in the starting lineup for the third-round match at the Canadian Open.
“Iva Jović and Alina Korneeva set for Canadian Open third-round clash, both entering with strong recent form.”
Model probabilities Iva Jović 37.9% · Alina Korneeva 62.1% Why Alina Korneeva is favoured Alina Korneeva's Elo (1562) is +42 over Iva Jović (1520); low confidence. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (5%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. +EV vs market away: model 62.1% vs market 35.8% (edge +73.7%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll). News context Iva Jović and Alina Korneeva set for Canadian Open third-round clash, both entering with strong recent form. Iva Jović: Iva Jović has advanced to the third round of the WTA Canadian Open after a straight-sets victory over Magda Linette, showcasing resilience by recovering from a deficit in the second set. Currently ranked No. 16, Jović is making her second appearance in the round-of-16 at a WTA 1000 event this year. Alina Korneeva: Alina Korneeva, a qualifier, is enjoying a breakthrough run at the Canadian Open, having upset the No. 23 seed Emma Navarro in straight sets to reach her first WTA 1000 third round. She has significantly climbed the rankings this year, moving from No. 210 to No. 89, and boasts a strong 35-13 record. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (5% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.