Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Varvara Lepchenko
To win
+$102.80
Total payout
$122.80
Joint prob
48.8%
Combined odds
6.14
Fair odds
2.05
Edge
+199.4%
Expected value: +$39.87 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$39.87 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 48.8% · fair market: 15.5% · edge: +213.7%
Model probabilities Alina Korneeva 51.2% · Varvara Lepchenko 48.8% Why Alina Korneeva is favoured Alina Korneeva's Elo (1571) is +117 over Varvara Lepchenko (1454); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 76.1% home · Platt-calibrated down to 51.2% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 48.8% vs market 15.5% (edge +213.7%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).