Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Elena Rybakina
To win
+$3.80
Total payout
$23.80
Joint prob
94.4%
Combined odds
1.19
Fair odds
1.06
Edge
+12.3%
Expected value: +$2.46 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$2.46 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 94.4% · fair market: 82.3% · edge: +14.7%
Model probabilities Ann Li 5.6% · Elena Rybakina 94.4% Why Elena Rybakina is favoured Elena Rybakina's Elo (1962) is +410 over Ann Li (1552); high confidence. +EV vs market away: model 94.4% vs market 82.3% (edge +14.7%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.