Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Yannick Hanfmann
To win
+$22.00
Total payout
$42.00
Joint prob
62.4%
Combined odds
2.10
Fair odds
1.60
Edge
+31.0%
Expected value: +$6.20 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$6.20 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 62.4% · fair market: 45.7% · edge: +36.4%
Model probabilities Benjamin Bonzi 37.6% · Yannick Hanfmann 62.4% Why Yannick Hanfmann is favoured Yannick Hanfmann's Elo (1606) is +55 over Benjamin Bonzi (1551); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 34.8% home · Platt-calibrated up to 37.6% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 62.4% vs market 45.7% (edge +36.4%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.