Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Katie Boulter
To win
+$116.40
Total payout
$136.40
Joint prob
21.1%
Combined odds
6.82
Fair odds
4.73
Edge
+44.2%
Expected value: +$8.84 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$8.84 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 21.1% · fair market: 14.3% · edge: +47.7%
Model probabilities Katie Boulter 21.1% · Karolina Muchova 78.9% Why Karolina Muchova is favoured Karolina Muchova's Elo (1878) is +284 over Katie Boulter (1593); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 10.6% home · Platt-calibrated up to 21.1% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 21.1% vs market 14.3% (edge +47.7%, suggested Kelly +7.6% of bankroll).