Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Joao Fonseca
To win
+$15.20
Total payout
$35.20
Joint prob
61.8%
Combined odds
1.76
Fair odds
1.62
Edge
+8.7%
Expected value: +$1.74 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$1.74 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 61.8% · fair market: 55.2% · edge: +11.8%
Model probabilities Casper Ruud 38.2% · Joao Fonseca 61.8% Why Joao Fonseca is favoured Joao Fonseca's Elo (1708) is +41 over Casper Ruud (1667); high confidence. +EV vs market away: model 61.8% vs market 55.2% (edge +11.8%, suggested Kelly +11.4% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.