Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Quentin Halys
To win
+$15.00
Total payout
$35.00
Joint prob
61.4%
Combined odds
1.75
Fair odds
1.63
Edge
+7.5%
Expected value: +$1.50 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$1.50 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 61.4% · fair market: 55.6% · edge: +10.5%
Model probabilities Ignacio Buse 38.6% · Quentin Halys 61.4% Why Quentin Halys is favoured Quentin Halys's Elo (1515) is +39 over Ignacio Buse (1476); high confidence. +EV vs market away: model 61.4% vs market 55.6% (edge +10.5%, suggested Kelly +10.0% of bankroll).