Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Sinja Kraus
To win
+$14.80
Total payout
$34.80
Joint prob
63.9%
Combined odds
1.74
Fair odds
1.57
Edge
+11.2%
Expected value: +$2.23 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$2.23 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 63.9% · fair market: 55.7% · edge: +14.7%
Model probabilities Sloane Stephens 36.1% · Sinja Kraus 63.9% Why Sinja Kraus is favoured Sinja Kraus's Elo (1431) is +15 over Sloane Stephens (1416); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 45.4% home · Platt-calibrated down to 36.1% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 63.9% vs market 55.7% (edge +14.7%, suggested Kelly +15.1% of bankroll).