Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Roman Andres Burruchaga
To win
+$28.80
Total payout
$48.80
Joint prob
50.7%
Combined odds
2.44
Fair odds
1.97
Edge
+23.8%
Expected value: +$4.76 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$4.76 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 50.7% · fair market: 39.9% · edge: +27.1%
Model probabilities Alexei Popyrin 49.3% · Roman Andres Burruchaga 50.7% Why Roman Andres Burruchaga is favoured Elo essentially level (1510 vs 1512) — winner depends on context. +EV vs market away: model 50.7% vs market 39.9% (edge +27.1%, suggested Kelly +16.5% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.