Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Dayana Yastremska
To win
+$32.00
Total payout
$52.00
Joint prob
48.8%
Combined odds
2.60
Fair odds
2.05
Edge
+26.8%
Expected value: +$5.36 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$5.36 on a $20 stake.
Market: Betfair ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 48.8% · fair market: 34.3% · edge: +42.0%
Model probabilities Dayana Yastremska 48.8% · Maja Chwalinska 51.2% Why Maja Chwalinska is favoured Elo essentially level (1521 vs 1515) — winner depends on context. Calibration Raw model: 51.9% home · Platt-calibrated down to 48.8% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 48.8% vs market 34.3% (edge +42.0%, suggested Kelly +16.8% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.