Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Pablo Carreno Busta
To win
+$29.60
Total payout
$49.60
Joint prob
44.1%
Combined odds
2.48
Fair odds
2.27
Edge
+9.4%
Expected value: +$1.89 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$1.89 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 44.1% · fair market: 39.1% · edge: +13.0%
Model probabilities Alejandro Tabilo 55.9% · Pablo Carreno Busta 44.1% Why Alejandro Tabilo is favoured Alejandro Tabilo's Elo (1552) is +25 over Pablo Carreno Busta (1526); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 57.6% home · Platt-calibrated down to 55.9% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 44.1% vs market 39.1% (edge +13.0%, suggested Kelly +6.4% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.