Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Karolina Muchova
To win
+$8.20
Total payout
$28.20
Joint prob
83.3%
Combined odds
1.41
Fair odds
1.20
Edge
+17.5%
Expected value: +$3.49 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$3.49 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 83.3% · fair market: 69.3% · edge: +20.1%
Model probabilities Karolina Muchova 83.3% · Nikola Bartunkova 16.7% Why Karolina Muchova is favoured Karolina Muchova's Elo (1904) is +266 over Nikola Bartunkova (1639); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 88.4% home · Platt-calibrated down to 83.3% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 83.3% vs market 69.3% (edge +20.1%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.