Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Alejandro Tabilo
To win
+$70.60
Total payout
$90.60
Joint prob
41.5%
Combined odds
4.53
Fair odds
2.41
Edge
+87.9%
Expected value: +$17.59 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$17.59 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 41.5% · fair market: 21.5% · edge: +93.0%
Model probabilities Alejandro Tabilo 41.5% · Rafael Jodar 58.5% Why Rafael Jodar is favoured Rafael Jodar's Elo (1587) is +36 over Alejandro Tabilo (1552); medium confidence. Calibration Raw model: 39.6% home · Platt-calibrated up to 41.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 41.5% vs market 21.5% (edge +93.0%, suggested Kelly +24.9% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.