Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Francisco Cerundolo
To win
+$30.60
Total payout
$50.60
Joint prob
61.2%
Combined odds
2.53
Fair odds
1.63
Edge
+54.9%
Expected value: +$10.99 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$10.99 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 61.2% · fair market: 38.1% · edge: +60.6%
Model probabilities Alex Michelsen 38.8% · Francisco Cerundolo 61.2% Why Francisco Cerundolo is favoured Francisco Cerundolo's Elo (1703) is +39 over Alex Michelsen (1664); high confidence. +EV vs market away: model 61.2% vs market 38.1% (edge +60.6%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.