Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Aryna Sabalenka
To win
+$3.80
Total payout
$23.80
Joint prob
94.9%
Combined odds
1.19
Fair odds
1.05
Edge
+12.9%
Expected value: +$2.58 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$2.58 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 94.9% · fair market: 82.3% · edge: +15.2%
Model probabilities Aryna Sabalenka 94.9% · Ekaterina Alexandrova 5.1% Why Aryna Sabalenka is favoured Aryna Sabalenka's Elo (2068) is +428 over Ekaterina Alexandrova (1640); high confidence. +EV vs market home: model 94.9% vs market 82.3% (edge +15.2%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.