Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Solana Sierra
To win
+$16.80
Total payout
$36.80
Joint prob
76.0%
Combined odds
1.84
Fair odds
1.32
Edge
+39.9%
Expected value: +$7.97 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$7.97 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 76.0% · fair market: 52.8% · edge: +43.9%
Model probabilities Solana Sierra 76.0% · Sloane Stephens 24.0% Why Solana Sierra is favoured Solana Sierra's Elo (1515) is +117 over Sloane Stephens (1399); high confidence. +EV vs market home: model 76.0% vs market 52.8% (edge +43.9%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).