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The Board›Tennis · ATP Shanghai Masters›Fixture File

Sat, Oct 10 · 04:00

▸ Fixture fileSat, Oct 10 · 04:00

Jiri Lehecka
vs Nuno Borges_

▸ Sealed before kickoff20h before kickoff2026-10-09 07:31 UTC

High confidence

modest rating gap · strong sample · confident top pick

Form & matchup

Jiri Lehecka

Elo 1758

No recent matches on file.

Nuno Borges

Elo 1643

No recent matches on file.

Rating edge

Jiri Lehecka +115

Model probability

v0.1.0-elo-logistic · 10/9/2026, 7:31:05 AM

Jiri Lehecka

71.1%

Nuno Borges

28.9%

Edge vs market

Jiri Leheckafair

Model

71.1%

Fair market

70.9%

Edge

+0.2%

Kelly (capped 25%)

0.0%

Fair price: 1.41

Nuno Borgesfair

Model

28.9%

Fair market

29.1%

Edge

-0.6%

Kelly (capped 25%)

0.0%

Fair price: 3.44

Market: Pinnacle · 10/9/2026, 1:31:02 AM

0 priced, 11 markets without prices hidden

Bankroll & staking

Bankroll$1,000

Kelly fraction25%

Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.

Suggested stake

$0.00

Line (est.)

1.36

Profit if win

+$0.00

Expected value

+$0.00

Model probability: 71.1% · fair market: 70.9% · edge: +0.2%

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Reasoning

Model probabilities
  Jiri Lehecka 71.1% · Nuno Borges 28.9%

Why Jiri Lehecka is favoured
  Jiri Lehecka's Elo (1758) is +115 over Nuno Borges (1643); high confidence.

Calibration
  Raw model: 75.8% home · Platt-calibrated down to 71.1% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.

Market check
  No +EV edge — book has the price right at these odds.

Rate-limited per match. Generation cost is shared across all visitors.

Jiri Leheckavs Nuno Borges_

Form & matchup

Jiri Lehecka

Nuno Borges

Edge vs market

Bankroll & staking

Reasoning

Jiri Lehecka
vs Nuno Borges_