Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Andrey Rublev
To win
+$7.80
Total payout
$27.80
Joint prob
73.5%
Combined odds
1.39
Fair odds
1.36
Edge
+2.1%
Expected value: +$0.43 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.43 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 73.5% · fair market: 70.0% · edge: +5.0%
Model probabilities Rei Sakamoto 26.5% · Andrey Rublev 73.5% Why Andrey Rublev is favoured Andrey Rublev's Elo (1642) is +134 over Rei Sakamoto (1508); low confidence. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (10%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Calibration Raw model: 21.9% home · Platt-calibrated up to 26.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 73.5% vs market 70.0% (edge +5.0%, suggested Kelly +5.5% of bankroll). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (10% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.