Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 41.3% · fair market: 40.4% · edge: +2.3%
Model probabilities Antonia Ruzic 41.3% · Magdalena Frech 58.7% Why Magdalena Frech is favoured Antonia Ruzic's Elo (1563) is +24 over Magdalena Frech (1538); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 57.3% home · Platt-calibrated down to 41.3% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Market check No +EV edge — book has the price right at these odds.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.