Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Sho Shimabukuro
To win
+$41.40
Total payout
$61.40
Joint prob
32.8%
Combined odds
3.07
Fair odds
3.05
Edge
+0.6%
Expected value: +$0.12 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.12 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 32.8% · fair market: 31.6% · edge: +3.6%
Model probabilities Sho Shimabukuro 32.8% · Miomir Kecmanovic 67.2% Why Miomir Kecmanovic is favoured Miomir Kecmanovic's Elo (1521) is +83 over Sho Shimabukuro (1437); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 29.0% home · Platt-calibrated up to 32.8% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 32.8% vs market 31.6% (edge +3.6%, suggested Kelly +0.3% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.