Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Elise Mertens
To win
+$7.20
Total payout
$27.20
Joint prob
81.4%
Combined odds
1.36
Fair odds
1.23
Edge
+10.7%
Expected value: +$2.15 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$2.15 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 81.4% · fair market: 71.1% · edge: +14.5%
Model probabilities Elise Mertens 81.4% · Anna Bondár 18.6% +EV vs market home: model 81.4% vs market 71.1% (edge +14.5%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.