Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Alina Charaeva
To win
+$27.00
Total payout
$47.00
Joint prob
56.9%
Combined odds
2.35
Fair odds
1.76
Edge
+33.7%
Expected value: +$6.74 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$6.74 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 56.9% · fair market: 41.4% · edge: +37.4%
Model probabilities Yuliia Starodubtseva 43.1% · Alina Charaeva 56.9% Calibration Raw model: 44.6% home · Platt-calibrated down to 43.1% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 56.9% vs market 41.4% (edge +37.4%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).