Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Anna Kalinskaya
To win
+$6.00
Total payout
$26.00
Joint prob
67.6%
Combined odds
1.30
Fair odds
1.48
Edge
-12.1%
Expected value: $-2.41 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: $-2.41 on a $20 stake.
Market: Betfair ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 67.6% · fair market: 62.4% · edge: +8.4%
Model probabilities Anna Kalinskaya 67.6% · McCartney Kessler 32.4% Why Anna Kalinskaya is favoured Anna Kalinskaya's Elo (1689) is +66 over McCartney Kessler (1623); high confidence. +EV vs market home: model 67.6% vs market 62.4% (edge +8.4%, suggested Kelly +0.0% of bankroll).