Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Jurij Rodionov
To win
+$120.60
Total payout
$140.60
Joint prob
30.8%
Combined odds
7.03
Fair odds
3.25
Edge
+116.2%
Expected value: +$23.23 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$23.23 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 30.8% · fair market: 13.8% · edge: +122.1%
Model probabilities Jakub Mensik 69.3% · Jurij Rodionov 30.7% Why Jakub Mensik is favoured Jakub Mensik's Elo (1741) is +273 over Jurij Rodionov (1468); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 88.8% home · Platt-calibrated down to 69.3% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 30.7% vs market 13.8% (edge +122.0%, suggested Kelly +19.3% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.