Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · JJ Wolf
To win
+$15.80
Total payout
$35.80
Joint prob
68.3%
Combined odds
1.79
Fair odds
1.46
Edge
+22.2%
Expected value: +$4.45 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$4.45 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 68.3% · fair market: 53.5% · edge: +27.6%
Model probabilities Sho Shimabukuro 31.7% · JJ Wolf 68.3% Calibration Raw model: 35.2% home · Platt-calibrated down to 31.7% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 68.3% vs market 53.5% (edge +27.6%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).