Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
To win
+$72.20
Total payout
$92.20
Joint prob
26.4%
Combined odds
4.61
Fair odds
3.78
Edge
+21.9%
Expected value: +$4.37 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$4.37 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 26.4% · fair market: 20.9% · edge: +26.3%
Model probabilities Adolfo Daniel Vallejo 26.4% · Rafael Jodar 73.6% Why Rafael Jodar is favoured Rafael Jodar's Elo (1609) is +119 over Adolfo Daniel Vallejo (1489); low confidence. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (20%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Calibration Raw model: 23.6% home · Platt-calibrated up to 26.4% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 26.4% vs market 20.9% (edge +26.3%, suggested Kelly +6.1% of bankroll). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (20% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.