Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Jasmine Paolini
To win
+$10.60
Total payout
$30.60
Joint prob
74.9%
Combined odds
1.53
Fair odds
1.34
Edge
+14.6%
Expected value: +$2.91 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$2.91 on a $20 stake.
Market: Betfair ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 74.9% · fair market: 60.7% · edge: +23.4%
Model probabilities Jasmine Paolini 74.9% · Daria Snigur 25.1% Why Jasmine Paolini is favoured Jasmine Paolini's Elo (1695) is +177 over Daria Snigur (1517); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 82.3% home · Platt-calibrated down to 74.9% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 74.9% vs market 60.7% (edge +23.4%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.