Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Matteo Berrettini
To win
+$30.20
Total payout
$50.20
Joint prob
55.5%
Combined odds
2.51
Fair odds
1.80
Edge
+39.2%
Expected value: +$7.84 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$7.84 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 55.5% · fair market: 38.5% · edge: +44.1%
Model probabilities Jiri Lehecka 44.5% · Matteo Berrettini 55.5% Why Matteo Berrettini is favoured Jiri Lehecka's Elo (1716) is +50 over Matteo Berrettini (1666); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 64.0% home · Platt-calibrated down to 44.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 55.5% vs market 38.5% (edge +44.1%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).