Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Storm Hunter
To win
+$46.00
Total payout
$66.00
Joint prob
30.4%
Combined odds
3.30
Fair odds
3.29
Edge
+0.2%
Expected value: +$0.04 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.04 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 30.4% · fair market: 29.3% · edge: +3.5%
Model probabilities Maria Sakkari 69.6% · Storm Hunter 30.4% Why Maria Sakkari is favoured Maria Sakkari's Elo (1628) is +123 over Storm Hunter (1505); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 76.9% home · Platt-calibrated down to 69.6% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 30.4% vs market 29.3% (edge +3.5%, suggested Kelly +0.1% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.