Model probabilities Nuno Borges 35.4% · Brandon Nakashima 64.6% Why Brandon Nakashima is favoured Brandon Nakashima's Elo (1699) is +64 over Nuno Borges (1635); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 32.7% home · Platt-calibrated up to 35.4% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.