Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Pavel Kotov
To win
+$146.40
Total payout
$166.40
Joint prob
13.8%
Combined odds
8.32
Fair odds
7.24
Edge
+15.0%
Expected value: +$2.99 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$2.99 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 13.8% · fair market: 11.5% · edge: +20.3%
Model probabilities Arthur Fils 86.2% · Pavel Kotov 13.8% Why Arthur Fils is favoured Arthur Fils's Elo (1785) is +317 over Pavel Kotov (1468); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 91.0% home · Platt-calibrated down to 86.2% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 13.8% vs market 11.5% (edge +20.3%, suggested Kelly +2.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.