Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Francisco Cerundolo
To win
+$13.60
Total payout
$33.60
Joint prob
60.1%
Combined odds
1.68
Fair odds
1.66
Edge
+0.9%
Expected value: +$0.19 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.19 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 60.1% · fair market: 57.9% · edge: +3.8%
Model probabilities Botic van de Zandschulp 39.9% · Francisco Cerundolo 60.1% Why Francisco Cerundolo is favoured Francisco Cerundolo's Elo (1682) is +32 over Botic van de Zandschulp (1649); high confidence. +EV vs market away: model 60.1% vs market 57.9% (edge +3.8%, suggested Kelly +1.4% of bankroll).