Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Ekaterina Alexandrova
To win
+$55.00
Total payout
$75.00
Joint prob
28.3%
Combined odds
3.75
Fair odds
3.53
Edge
+6.3%
Expected value: +$1.26 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$1.26 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 28.3% · fair market: 26.0% · edge: +8.9%
Model probabilities Ekaterina Alexandrova 28.3% · Mirra Andreeva 71.7% Why Mirra Andreeva is favoured Mirra Andreeva's Elo (1828) is +117 over Ekaterina Alexandrova (1711); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 23.9% home · Platt-calibrated up to 28.3% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 28.3% vs market 26.0% (edge +8.9%, suggested Kelly +2.3% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.