Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Daniel Merida Aguilar
To win
+$67.60
Total payout
$87.60
Joint prob
38.1%
Combined odds
4.38
Fair odds
2.63
Edge
+66.8%
Expected value: +$13.37 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$13.37 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 38.1% · fair market: 22.2% · edge: +71.6%
Model probabilities Taylor Fritz 61.9% · Daniel Merida Aguilar 38.1% Why Taylor Fritz is favoured Taylor Fritz's Elo (1752) is +158 over Daniel Merida Aguilar (1594); low confidence. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (30%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Calibration Raw model: 80.6% home · Platt-calibrated down to 61.9% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 38.1% vs market 22.2% (edge +71.6%, suggested Kelly +19.8% of bankroll). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (30% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.