Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Paula Badosa
To win
+$16.60
Total payout
$36.60
Joint prob
64.4%
Combined odds
1.83
Fair odds
1.55
Edge
+17.9%
Expected value: +$3.57 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$3.57 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 64.4% · fair market: 53.1% · edge: +21.3%
Model probabilities Daria Kasatkina 35.6% · Paula Badosa 64.4% Why Paula Badosa is favoured Paula Badosa's Elo (1631) is +62 over Daria Kasatkina (1569); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 33.1% home · Platt-calibrated up to 35.6% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 64.4% vs market 53.1% (edge +21.3%, suggested Kelly +21.5% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.