Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Rinky Hijikata
To win
+$49.60
Total payout
$69.60
Joint prob
44.8%
Combined odds
3.48
Fair odds
2.23
Edge
+56.0%
Expected value: +$11.21 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$11.21 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 44.8% · fair market: 27.8% · edge: +61.3%
Model probabilities Rinky Hijikata 44.8% · Roman Safiullin 55.2% Why Roman Safiullin is favoured Roman Safiullin's Elo (1545) is +21 over Rinky Hijikata (1524); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 43.7% home · Platt-calibrated up to 44.8% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 44.8% vs market 27.8% (edge +61.3%, suggested Kelly +22.6% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.