Model probabilities Aryna Sabalenka 78.9% · Sara Bejlek 21.1% Why Aryna Sabalenka is favoured Aryna Sabalenka's Elo (2041) is +454 over Sara Bejlek (1587); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 95.6% home · Platt-calibrated down to 78.9% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.