Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Tomas Machac
To win
+$8.80
Total payout
$28.80
Joint prob
80.0%
Combined odds
1.44
Fair odds
1.25
Edge
+15.1%
Expected value: +$3.03 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$3.03 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 80.0% · fair market: 67.6% · edge: +18.3%
Model probabilities Zhizhen Zhang 20.0% · Tomas Machac 80.0% Why Tomas Machac is favoured Tomas Machac's Elo (1630) is +212 over Zhizhen Zhang (1418); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 15.0% home · Platt-calibrated up to 20.0% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 80.0% vs market 67.6% (edge +18.3%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.