Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Arthur Rinderknech
To win
+$18.80
Total payout
$38.80
Joint prob
69.5%
Combined odds
1.94
Fair odds
1.44
Edge
+34.7%
Expected value: +$6.95 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$6.95 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 69.5% · fair market: 49.7% · edge: +39.6%
Model probabilities Miomir Kecmanovic 30.5% · Arthur Rinderknech 69.5% Why Arthur Rinderknech is favoured Arthur Rinderknech's Elo (1609) is +75 over Miomir Kecmanovic (1534); high confidence. +EV vs market away: model 69.5% vs market 49.7% (edge +39.6%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.