Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Elina Svitolina
To win
+$6.20
Total payout
$26.20
Joint prob
83.2%
Combined odds
1.31
Fair odds
1.20
Edge
+8.9%
Expected value: +$1.79 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$1.79 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 83.2% · fair market: 74.4% · edge: +11.8%
Model probabilities Ann Li 16.8% · Elina Svitolina 83.2% Why Elina Svitolina is favoured Elina Svitolina's Elo (1877) is +260 over Ann Li (1617); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 11.9% home · Platt-calibrated up to 16.8% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 83.2% vs market 74.4% (edge +11.8%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.