Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Denis Shapovalov
To win
+$15.40
Total payout
$35.40
Joint prob
76.7%
Combined odds
1.77
Fair odds
1.30
Edge
+35.8%
Expected value: +$7.16 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$7.16 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 76.7% · fair market: 55.0% · edge: +39.6%
Model probabilities Zachary Svajda 23.3% · Denis Shapovalov 76.7% Why Denis Shapovalov is favoured Denis Shapovalov's Elo (1602) is +122 over Zachary Svajda (1480); high confidence. +EV vs market away: model 76.7% vs market 55.0% (edge +39.6%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.