▸ Sealed before kickoff3.5h before kickoff2026-08-04 19:31 UTC· result settled — verifiable
77%
High confidence
clear rating gap · strong sample · confident top pick
How the model did
Final
2 — 1
Frances Tiafoe won
✓ Model was right
Model assigned
77.0%
to frances tiafoe
Model's top pick
home
top probability
Brier (↓ better)
0.106
Log loss (↓ better)
0.262
Graded Aug 5, 2026 · 04:03
Form & matchup
Frances Tiafoe
Elo 1746
No recent matches on file.
Marin Cilic
Elo 1571
No recent matches on file.
Rating edge
Frances Tiafoe +176
Confidence: 100%
Head to head
No prior meetings on file.
Rest days
Frances Tiafoe
–
Marin Cilic
–
Model probability
v0.1.0-elo-logistic ·
Frances Tiafoe
77.0%
Marin Cilic
23.0%
0 priced, 11 markets without prices hidden
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Reasoning
Model probabilities
Frances Tiafoe 77.0% · Marin Cilic 23.0%
Why Frances Tiafoe is favoured
Frances Tiafoe's Elo (1723) is +124 over Marin Cilic (1599); high confidence.
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