Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Marco Trungelliti
To win
+$88.40
Total payout
$108.40
Joint prob
53.2%
Combined odds
5.42
Fair odds
1.88
Edge
+188.2%
Expected value: +$37.65 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$37.65 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 53.2% · fair market: 18.0% · edge: +195.4%
Model probabilities Alexander Blockx 46.8% · Marco Trungelliti 53.2% Why Marco Trungelliti is favoured Alexander Blockx's Elo (1494) is +18 over Marco Trungelliti (1476); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 55.4% home · Platt-calibrated down to 46.8% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 53.2% vs market 18.0% (edge +195.4%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.