Bayer 04 Leverkusen scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Bayer 04 Leverkusen 55.8% · Draw 22.6% · VfB Stuttgart 21.6% Why Bayer 04 Leverkusen is favoured Bayer 04 Leverkusen's Elo (1671) is +51 over VfB Stuttgart (1619); high confidence. Recent: Bayer 04 Leverkusen 4W-1D-2L · VfB Stuttgart 4W-1D-5L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Bayer 04 Leverkusen +0.6, VfB Stuttgart +0.2. Form depth Bayer 04 Leverkusen: avg 2.3 goals scored, 1.7 conceded per game (3/3 at home, 1/4 on the road). VfB Stuttgart: avg 1.7 goals scored, 1.5 conceded per game (2/5 at home, 2/5 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~3.6 total goals (Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1.9, VfB Stuttgart 1.7) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 4 prior meetings — Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0W, 4D, VfB Stuttgart 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 3-1, 1-4, 3-4.