Borussia Mönchengladbach scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Borussia Mönchengladbach 37.0% · Draw 23.5% · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 39.4% Why TSG 1899 Hoffenheim is favoured TSG 1899 Hoffenheim's Elo (1530) is +53 over Borussia Mönchengladbach (1477); high confidence. Recent: Borussia Mönchengladbach 0W-0D-5L · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 1W-0D-4L (last 5). Goal differential per game: Borussia Mönchengladbach -2.2, TSG 1899 Hoffenheim -0.8. Form depth Borussia Mönchengladbach: avg 1.4 goals scored, 3.6 conceded per game (0/2 at home, 0/3 on the road). TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: avg 1.8 goals scored, 2.6 conceded per game (1/3 at home, 0/2 on the road). Borussia Mönchengladbach on a 5-match losing streak. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim on a 2-match losing streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~4.7 total goals (Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.0, TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 2.7) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — Borussia Mönchengladbach 0W, 2D, TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 4-0, 5-1, 4-4. Calibration Raw model: 39.5% home · Platt-calibrated down to 37.0% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.