SV 07 Elversberg scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities SV 07 Elversberg 45.8% · Draw 24.9% · FC Augsburg 29.3% Why SV 07 Elversberg is favoured Elo essentially level (1498 vs 1502) — winner depends on context. Recent: SV 07 Elversberg 2W-1D-2L · FC Augsburg 2W-2D-1L (last 5). Goal differential per game: SV 07 Elversberg +0.0, FC Augsburg +1.0. Form depth SV 07 Elversberg: avg 1.6 goals scored, 1.6 conceded per game (1/2 at home, 1/3 on the road). FC Augsburg: avg 2.6 goals scored, 1.6 conceded per game (1/3 at home, 1/2 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~3.7 total goals (SV 07 Elversberg 1.6, FC Augsburg 2.1) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (10%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Calibration Raw model: 47.0% home · Platt-calibrated down to 45.8% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context SV 07 Elversberg has 1 more day of rest (SV 07 Elversberg 48d, FC Augsburg 47d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (10% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.