FC Bayern München scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities FC Bayern München 79.1% · Draw 7.6% · 1. FC Union Berlin 13.3% Why FC Bayern München is favoured FC Bayern München's Elo (1908) is +447 over 1. FC Union Berlin (1461); high confidence. Recent: FC Bayern München 3W-1D-0L · 1. FC Union Berlin 0W-1D-2L (last 4). Goal differential per game: FC Bayern München +2.5, 1. FC Union Berlin -2.0. Form depth FC Bayern München: avg 3.0 goals scored, 0.5 conceded per game (2/2 at home, 1/2 on the road). 1. FC Union Berlin: avg 1.3 goals scored, 3.3 conceded per game (0/2 at home, 0/1 on the road). FC Bayern München on a 2-match winning streak. 1. FC Union Berlin on a 2-match losing streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~4.1 total goals (FC Bayern München 3.2, 1. FC Union Berlin 0.9) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 3 prior meetings — FC Bayern München 0W, 3D, 1. FC Union Berlin 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 4-0, 2-2, 1-1. Calibration Raw model: 83.9% home · Platt-calibrated down to 79.1% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.