1. FSV Mainz 05 scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities 1. FSV Mainz 05 44.9% · Draw 29.9% · Eintracht Frankfurt 25.2% Why 1. FSV Mainz 05 is favoured Elo essentially level (1513 vs 1512) — winner depends on context. Recent: 1. FSV Mainz 05 1W-1D-0L · Eintracht Frankfurt 0W-1D-1L (last 2). Goal differential per game: 1. FSV Mainz 05 +2.5, Eintracht Frankfurt -1.5. Form depth 1. FSV Mainz 05: avg 2.5 goals scored, 0.0 conceded per game (0/1 at home, 1/1 on the road). Eintracht Frankfurt: avg 2.0 goals scored, 3.5 conceded per game (0/1 at home, 0/1 on the road). Head-to-head 4 prior meetings — 1. FSV Mainz 05 0W, 4D, Eintracht Frankfurt 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 2-1, 1-0, 1-1. Calibration Raw model: 51.3% home · Platt-calibrated down to 44.9% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.