1. FSV Mainz 05 scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities 1. FSV Mainz 05 42.6% · Draw 29.9% · SC Paderborn 07 27.6% Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — 1. FSV Mainz 05 0W, 2D, SC Paderborn 07 0W (draws are common). Last 1: 2-0. Calibration Raw model: 46.9% home · Platt-calibrated down to 42.6% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.